Still, there is a good chance ties will continue to improve.
Walmart and Amazon are both investing billions of dollars in India. India’s purchases of American defense equipment are scheduled to top $18 billion by next year. Overall trade between the two countries hit $126 billion in 2017. And the number of Indian students in the United States soared last year to 186,000, the fourth consecutive year of double-digit growth.
As China becomes more assertive on its undemarcated border with India and ramps up investments in Sri Lanka, the Maldives and Nepal — all traditional Indian satellites — conviction has grown in New Delhi that it must counter Beijing forcefully.
Even Pakistan, India’s traditional rival, is increasingly being seen in New Delhi as little more than a Chinese proxy.
“The thinking inside and outside government has changed radically, with China now seen as our biggest threat,” said Lalit Mansingh, once India’s top career diplomat. “And if you look at China as a threat, you look around to see who can help us to defend against China. And it’s the U.S.”
But no one in the upper echelons of Mr. Modi’s government is quite sure how to deal with Mr. Trump, whose moods and demands even American diplomats seem unable to predict, Indians say.
Mr. Pompeo and Mr. Mattis must reassure the Indians without dismissing Mr. Trump’s concerns or promising that he will not latch onto some new concern — a test Mr. Tillerson failed.
“The erratic quality of this White House leaves everyone in the position not of trying to maximize the gains of the relationship, but instead trying to minimize the risks,” said Ashley J. Tellis, who was one of Mr. Bush’s top diplomats. “Everyone is struggling to deal with it, and India is no exception.”
Mr. Pompeo is also likely to stop in Islamabad for several hours to meet Imran Khan, Pakistan’s new prime minister. Relations between the two nations have grown so testy over the war in Afghanistan that the two sides have begun restricting the movement of each others’ diplomats. In addition, the American military is moving to withhold about $300 million in aid to Pakistan, citing insufficient actions against terrorist groups.
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